Baden-Württemberg Election: CDU and Greens in Neck-and-Neck Race

A Historic Election Sunday

On Sunday, March 8, 2026, around 8.5 million eligible voters in Baden-Württemberg are called upon to elect a new state parliament. The election marks several turning points: For the first time, 16 and 17-year-olds are allowed to vote — representing approximately 180,000 additional eligible voters. In addition, a new two-vote electoral system, combining direct mandates and proportional representation, will be used for the first time. And above all: After almost 15 years, Winfried Kretschmann is leaving the State Ministry — Germany's last Green Minister-President is not running again.

Hagel vs. Özdemir — A Close Duel

The race to succeed him is as open as rarely before. Manuel Hagel, CDU state chairman and parliamentary group leader, is calling for a change of government and is focusing on classic center-right economic policies: tax cuts for companies, deregulation, and stronger support for industry — particularly important for a state with a strong automotive industry and mechanical engineering as its backbone.

Opposing him is Cem Özdemir, the former Federal Minister of Agriculture and long-time Green politician, who has deliberately focused on the state election. Özdemir combines climate protection with industrial policy: green hydrogen, accelerated expansion of renewable energies, and climate-neutral modernization of Baden-Württemberg as a business location. He is considered a popular candidate — in the direct election question, he is significantly ahead of Hagel with 47 percent (24 percent).

Polls: Exciting Until the End

The latest surveys before the election show a historically close race. The ZDF-Politbarometer Extra sees the CDU and Greens tied at 28 percent each. An INSA poll from March 4, however, sees the CDU slightly ahead of the Greens with 27 percent to 24 percent. The AfD is at around 20 percent, the SPD at 9 percent, and the FDP and Left Party each around 6 percent.

According to the polls, the CDU and Greens will once again be dependent on each other — the crucial question is therefore not whether, but which of the two parties will provide the Minister-President. If Özdemir wins, the Greens would retain government leadership despite slight losses in votes compared to 2021. A victory for Hagel would mean the return of the CDU to the top after 15 years in opposition in the State Ministry.

Mood Test for Chancellor Merz

The election in Stuttgart has significance far beyond Baden-Württemberg. It is the first state election since the formation of the black-red federal government under Friedrich Merz — and thus a first mood test for the new Berlin coalition. A strong performance by the CDU would give Merz a boost; a surprise victory for the Greens, on the other hand, could reignite the national debate on climate policy.

Observers also point to the AfD: A result of around 20 percent in the economically strong southwest would be another signal that the party has permanently established itself even in prosperous regions.

New Electoral Law, New Voters

For the first time, young people aged 16 and over can vote — a total of around 650,000 first-time voters, representing 8.4 percent of all eligible voters. The new voting system with first and second votes also allows splitting for the first time — i.e., voting for different parties for direct and list mandates. How this will affect the distribution of seats remains to be seen.

Baden-Württemberg, Germany's strongest economic state, is not only electing a state parliament tomorrow — it is deciding on the direction and face of German climate policy for decades to come.