Greens narrowly win in Baden-Württemberg — Özdemir to become Minister-President

Historic Result in the Southwest

It was a night of records: The Green party won the state election in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026, with around 31.3 percent of the vote — narrowly ahead of the CDU, which received 29.7 percent. According to Tagesspiegel, the lead was just around 27,000 votes out of more than 5.4 million votes cast. A razor-thin victory that nevertheless makes history.

Because lead candidate Cem Özdemir is now expected to become the first politician of Turkish descent to be Minister-President of a German state. The 60-year-old, born in Bad Urach, trained social worker, and former Federal Minister of Agriculture, will succeed long-time head of government Winfried Kretschmann — Germany's only Green Minister-President to date.

AfD Strong, SPD Historically Weak

Behind the head-to-head race at the top, the result shows clear shifts in the political landscape of the southwest. The AfD achieved around 18.2 percent, almost doubling its result from 2021. It will be the third-strongest force in the new state parliament, but remains politically isolated in terms of coalition options.

Even more dramatic is the collapse of the SPD: With only 5.5 percent, it achieved a historically weak result and barely cleared the five percent threshold. Party leader Andreas Stoch and FDP parliamentary group leader Hans-Ulrich Rülke announced their resignation immediately after the election. The FDP failed to enter the state parliament.

Green-Black Coalition to Continue Government

Politically, a continuation of the previous Green-Black coalition is emerging. Together, the Greens and CDU have a clear majority in the state parliament. CDU lead candidate Manuel Hagel congratulated Özdemir and signaled his willingness to hold talks for coalition negotiations. According to ZDF heute, 55 percent of those surveyed rated the Greens in Baden-Württemberg as a party that pursues different policies than the federal party — a decisive factor for the election success.

Setback for Chancellor Merz

The result is considered the first important test of sentiment for the new federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU). The defeat of his party in the most populous southwestern state is a symbolic setback — especially because Merz had recently gained points nationwide with a course of strict migration policy. According to the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the federal government scored significantly worse than the state government, with a value of minus 0.6 on a scale of +5 to −5. Özdemir's personal popularity and the Greens' ability to mobilize their core electorate proved to be stronger than the conservative federal trend.

A Symbol for an Immigration Society

Özdemir's upcoming assumption of office also has a social dimension: In 1994, he was the first member of parliament of Turkish descent to be elected to the German Bundestag. Now, as head of government of one of Germany's strongest economic states — home to Daimler, Bosch, and SAP — he could set a visible example for the reality of German immigration society. For many people with a migration background, the result is more than an election result: it is a symbol.