Hormuz Crisis: Fuel Prices Soar, MOL Faces Stress Test
The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of the Druzhba pipeline are simultaneously putting pressure on Hungary's energy supply. MOL is mobilizing strategic reserves, fuel prices have been rising rapidly since March, and Brent crude has jumped above $92 a barrel.
Double Shock Hits Hungary's Oil Supply
Hungary's energy situation faces a rare double challenge in the spring of 2026. Firstly, since January 27th, crude oil has not been flowing through the Druzhba pipeline after a Russian airstrike damaged the Ukrainian section. Secondly, since the beginning of March, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz — as a result of Tehran's response to US and Israeli military strikes against Iran — threatens approximately 20 percent of the global oil supply. MOL Plc. is forced to react on both fronts simultaneously.
The Strait of Hormuz: The World's Oil Tap Closes
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway only 40 kilometers wide between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, sees a fifth of global oil and LNG trade pass through it daily. Following a warning from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), tanker traffic has fallen by approximately 70 percent: shipping insurers have either withdrawn their coverage offers or are charging astronomical premiums for passage through the war zone, Al Jazeera reported.
Markets panicked immediately. Brent crude oil, which was trading around $68 a barrel at the end of February, soared to $92.69 a barrel by the first week of March, briefly exceeding $94 — the highest level since September 2023. Some analysts believe that a sustained blockade could realistically push prices to $100–130 a barrel, and in an extreme scenario, prices could even reach $300, as CNBC market experts indicate.
MOL's Room for Maneuver Shrinks
At the end of February, the MOL Group initiated the release of strategic crude oil reserves with the Hungarian Ministry of Energy to ensure the uninterrupted supply of Hungarian and Slovak refineries. In parallel, the company ordered Saudi, Norwegian, Kazakh, Libyan, and Russian seaborne shipments via the alternative route through the Adriatic port of Omišalj in Croatia, according to a statement from the MOL Group press office.
The European Commission confirmed on February 26th that it sees no immediate security of supply concerns, as member states and companies are managing the disruption with diversified sources — however, in the longer term, alternative routes are more expensive, and global spare capacity has been reduced to a minimum due to the Middle East crisis.
Hungarian Fuel Prices: The Increase is Felt in Forints
The global oil price surge is also reflected at domestic gas stations. At the beginning of March, the price of 95-octane gasoline was around 573 forints per liter, and diesel cost 603 forints. By March 7th, gasoline had increased by 16 forints and diesel by 37 forints compared to the beginning of the month, within a single week, according to data from Index.hu and Világgazdaság. According to Trademagazin, a sustained increase in energy prices represents imported inflationary pressure for Hungary, particularly in terms of logistics and industrial costs.
Diplomatic Offensive in Moscow
A key element of the Orbán government's energy crisis management has remained its Eastern Opening: Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó traveled to Moscow and, after negotiations with Putin, secured guarantees that Russia will continue oil and gas supplies to Hungary at unchanged prices, Daily News Hungary reported. EU partners and proponents of energy diversification criticize this move, but Budapest argues that the market currently does not offer a competitive alternative for affordable energy prices for households.
Energy Security: A Lasting Dilemma for the V4 Region
The Hormuz crisis highlights the structural vulnerability faced by the Visegrad countries — particularly Hungary and Slovakia: both countries are overwhelmingly dependent on a single pipeline system that can be disrupted at any time by a conflict beyond their borders. The capacity of the alternative Adriatic route is currently limited, and access to Middle Eastern sources becomes drastically more expensive during a Hormuz blockade. Ensuring energy security — both in terms of supply routes and expanding renewable energy sources — will remain a political priority for the V4 region for years to come.
