Tisza Party Leads by 20 Points, Orbán Deploys Troops

Record-Breaking Difference in Public Opinion Poll

Forty days before the parliamentary elections on April 12, the Medián polling institute registered the largest difference ever measured between the two leading parties. According to the survey, cited by both Telex and Népszava, the Tisza Party stands at 55 percent among decided voters, while Fidesz–KDNP is at 35 percent — a lead of 20 percentage points. The survey was conducted between February 18 and 23, commissioned by HVG.

The Tisza Party's lead is also significant in the entire voting-age population, with a difference of 11 percentage points. The survey also points to a significant participation asymmetry: 97 percent of Tisza Party sympathizers are certain to vote, compared to 85 percent of the Fidesz camp. This ratio alone could significantly influence the final result.

Péter Magyar Aims for a Two-Thirds Majority

Péter Magyar, the president and prime ministerial candidate of the Tisza Party, reacted immediately after the publication of the survey: this was the largest difference ever measured by Medián, and he emphasized that the party is aiming for a two-thirds majority. Without this, it would not be possible to remove individuals holding constitutional positions appointed by Fidesz, nor to fundamentally transform the state media, he warned in an interview with Telex.

Magyar also recalled the Polish parallel: if Tisza did not have a two-thirds majority, Fidesz — just like PiS in Poland — would do everything to prevent the transformation. According to HVG, based on current surveys, the party is close to the two-thirds threshold.

Orbán Deploys Soldiers to the Streets

On the same day that Medián published Tisza's record lead, Viktor Orbán announced after a meeting of the Defence Council that soldiers and defence equipment would be deployed to critical energy infrastructure — power plants, distribution stations, and control centres. According to Portfolio.hu, Orbán justified the decision by saying that, based on information from the national security services, Ukraine is "preparing further actions to disrupt the Hungarian energy system." A drone flight ban has also been ordered in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county.

According to a report by Telex, the deployment of soldiers began on February 27. Minister of Defence Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky personally coordinated the operation.

Propaganda or Real Threat?

Opposition and independent analysts strongly question the necessity of the military deployment — especially due to the coincidence: the announcement was made on the exact same day as Tisza's record result. According to an analysis by 444.hu, "the image of the deployed soldiers also serves Fidesz's raw propaganda purposes": the sight of soldiers patrolling the streets evokes a strong emotional effect, which favours the ruling party. In parallel, the European Commission announced that the interruption observed on the Friendship oil pipeline was not due to political intent, but to damage repair work on the Ukrainian section.

Conflicting Polls and Prospects

The Nézőpont Institute, which is close to the government, published its own survey on the same day, according to which Fidesz stands at 46 percent and Tisza at 40 percent — the results are in stark contrast to Medián's data. However, the Polymarket betting platform shows that more than 60 percent of bettors consider Péter Magyar to be the next prime minister.

In the final, decisive phase of the campaign, both sides are mobilizing to the maximum. Long queues have been documented at Tisza's signature collection stands during Péter Magyar's country tour, while Viktor Orbán — by his own admission — is calculating with a 65 percent turnout, which he believes is enough for a Fidesz victory. The final result will largely depend on whether the measured intentions actually translate into participation on April 12.