US and Israeli Strike on Iran: Energy Shock for Slovakia

Attack Changes the Middle East

In the night of February 27-28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive, coordinated strike on Iran. The US military primarily targeted Iranian ballistic missile and nuclear facilities, while Israeli forces focused on the country's political and military leadership. Among the casualties is Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – his death has been confirmed by President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Iranian state media. Tehran has declared 40 days of mourning, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) immediately vowed retaliation, announcing attacks on dozens of American bases in the region.

Threat of Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

The key weapon in Iran's retaliation is not only its missile arsenal but also its control over the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. According to Bloomberg and CNBC, nearly a third of the world's seaborne oil exports pass through this strategic point – more than 14 million barrels per day. Most of it goes to China, India, Japan, and Korea. Semi-official Iranian media have announced that the strait is effectively closed, although Tehran has not formally confirmed this. Even a partial restriction of traffic would be enough to trigger another sharp jump in oil prices.

Oil Price Spike: Barclays Warns of $100

Global oil markets reacted immediately. The price of Brent crude, which had been hovering around $72.50 a barrel before the attack, jumped by more than $5. Analysts at Barclays have raised their forecast to $100 a barrel – just a day before the attack, they were only expecting $80. JP Morgan estimates that a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices to $120 to $130. According to Yahoo Finance, each week of escalation adds another $10 to $20 to the current price – and markets are just beginning to factor that in.

Slovakia: Double Energy Blow

Iran has struck at the energy nerves of the global economy at the worst possible time for Slovakia. Since January 27, 2026, the Druzhba pipeline has been out of service – a Russian drone damaged infrastructure near Brody, Ukraine, disrupting supplies of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The Slovak government declared a state of emergency in the oil sector for the first time in the country's history on February 18 and authorized the release of 250,000 tons from state strategic reserves. The reason is simple: Slovnaft, the only Slovak refinery, is technically configured exclusively for Russian oil.

Although the European Commission assured on February 25 that there was no immediate risk to Slovakia's energy security, the situation has since deteriorated significantly. Croatia has offered capacity on the Adria pipeline as an alternative, but strategic reserves are slowly being depleted, and oil prices have meanwhile soared. Slovak consumers and industry are thus facing simultaneous pressure from two directions: the continuing Druzhba outage and the sharp rise in oil prices on world markets. Higher prices will inevitably translate into higher prices for fuel, electricity, and food.

Power Vacuum in Iran

Khamenei's death after 36 years in power opens up deep political uncertainty. According to NPR, a three-member council is temporarily taking over power until the Assembly of Experts selects a successor. Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warn that the IRGC will have a decisive influence on the selection of a successor – suggesting a tougher course rather than a willingness to de-escalate. An Iran without a clear leader is an unpredictable player with a nuclear program in ruins and a missile arsenal in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard.

What to Do? Urgent Call for Bratislava

Slovakia finds itself at the intersection of two energy crises at once. The government should urgently increase the volume of transport through the Croatian Adria pipeline, explore purchases on the spot market, and strengthen strategic reserves before they run out. Long-term dependence on a single oil corridor remains an unacceptable risk for a small, landlocked economy. Further developments in the conflict will determine whether the price of Brent actually attacks $100 – and how long Slovak households will feel it at gas stations and in stores.