AfD Gains Ground: Merz Coalition Under Pressure in Super Election Year
The Greens narrowly won the state election in Baden-Württemberg ahead of the CDU, while the AfD nearly doubled its share of the vote. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has again ruled out cooperation with the AfD – but his approval rating is at a historic low.
Bitter Result for the CDU in Baden-Württemberg
The state election in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026, has ruthlessly exposed the balance of power in federal politics. With 30.2 percent, the Greens narrowly prevailed over the CDU (29.7 percent) – a result that CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz himself described as "bitter." Although the Christian Democrats made significant gains compared to the last election (+5.6 percentage points), it was not enough for the hoped-for victory. The previous coalition of Greens and CDU will in all likelihood continue; Cem Özdemir is set to remain Minister President.
AfD Almost Doubles – FDP Ousted
The real political earthquake occurred elsewhere: The AfD achieved 18.8 percent, recording the strongest gains of all parties (+9.1 percentage points) – the best result in the party's history in Baden-Württemberg. The SPD, on the other hand, plummeted to a historic low of 5.5 percent and barely made it into parliament. The FDP failed to clear the five percent hurdle with 4.4 percent and is no longer represented in the Stuttgart state parliament for the first time since 1992.
Voter turnout rose to 69.6 percent – an increase of 5.8 percentage points compared to 2021 – signaling growing political mobilization, from which the AfD in particular benefited.
Merz Reaffirms the Firebreak
Despite the AfD's strong performance, Chancellor Merz made it unequivocally clear: Cooperation with the AfD is out of the question. "I will not seek a different majority in the Bundestag, even if individual publishers are now demanding it," he said at a press conference after the election. CDU lead candidate Manuel Hagel also ruled out being elected Minister President with AfD votes: "No office in the world is worth that."
The AfD had its lead candidate Markus Frohnmaier make a coalition offer to the CDU after the election – which was immediately rejected by both sides of the Union.
Merz's Popularity at a Low
The black-red federal coalition is under considerable pressure. According to the ZDF Politbarometer, 56 percent of those surveyed rated the Chancellor's work as "rather poor"; 59 percent rated the government's overall performance negatively. By comparison, Merz's predecessor Olaf Scholz started with 65 percent approval, Angela Merkel even with 72 percent.
Particularly serious: 72 percent of citizens believe that the federal government is doing too little for the economy. Economic and social policy are considered the main areas of contention within the coalition.
Five State Elections as a Test
The "Super Election Year" 2026 has only just begun. The Baden-Württemberg election will be followed by four more state elections:
- March 22: Rhineland-Palatinate
- September 6: Saxony-Anhalt
- September 20: Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
In particular, the autumn elections in eastern Germany are considered dangerous territory for the established parties – the AfD could push to be the strongest force in government responsibility there for the first time. For the black-red coalition, this means that every unpopular decision in Berlin – be it on the defense budget, the climate protection program or social reforms – will have a direct impact on the ballot box.
Stress Test for the Grand Coalition
Political scientists see the coming weeks as a crucial phase. The coalition must simultaneously present a climate protection program, increase the defense budget and find social policy compromises – all under the eyes of an increasingly impatient electorate. The question of whether the firebreak against the AfD will hold even with poorer federal polls will continue to occupy political Berlin for a long time.
