Oil: $580 Million in Suspicious Bets Placed Before Trump Tweet

Volume Nine Times Higher Than Normal

Between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. (New York time) on Monday, March 24, approximately 6,200 futures contracts on Brent and West Texas Intermediate changed hands, for a notional value of $580 million. According to market data analyzed by the BBC and CBS News, the usual volume for this time slot is around 700 contracts — a peak nine times higher than normal.

Fifteen minutes later, at 7:04 a.m., Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States was having "very good and productive conversations" with Iran about the Strait of Hormuz, abruptly reversing the bellicose rhetoric of the weekend, when he threatened to "obliterate" Iranian power plants.

Immediate Collapse of Prices

The announcement triggered a spectacular drop: Brent fell from $112 to $99 a barrel, while WTI plunged from $99 to $86, a decrease of around 11 to 14% in a matter of minutes, according to Al Jazeera. At the same time, e-Mini S&P 500 contracts jumped, with the Dow Jones gaining more than 1,000 points. Anyone who had shorted oil just before made considerable profits.

"The Word Is Treason"

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman did not mince words. "We have another word for situations in which people with access to confidential national security information exploit that information for profit. That word is treason," he told Fortune.

Stephen Piepgrass, a futures market specialist, believes that "the massive spike in trading volume just before that release is enough to raise eyebrows and, I think, to launch an investigation." Ben Schiffrin of the Better Markets organization points to "the most problematic explanation: they knew before they placed their orders."

A Recurring Pattern That Alarms Regulators

This is not an isolated case. In February 2026, a researcher identified 38 anonymous accounts on the Polymarket betting platform that had anticipated US-Israeli strikes against Iran with disturbing accuracy, pocketing more than $2 million. In April 2025, suspicious volumes had already been recorded just before the announcement of a tariff suspension, causing a 12% jump in the Nasdaq.

Faced with this accumulation of clues, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy has filed the BETS OFF Act, a bipartisan bill aimed at banning betting on government decisions, wars, and events whose outcome an individual can control.

What Consequences for Europe?

The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has indicated that it is closely monitoring the case. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has not yet commented. For French, Belgian and Swiss consumers, the extreme volatility of crude oil prices has a direct impact on prices at the pump and energy bills — a hot topic as G7 foreign ministers are debating the Iranian crisis this week.

Iran, for its part, denies any negotiations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, called Trump's announcement "fake news" intended to manipulate oil markets. The White House rejects the accusations of insider trading, calling them "irresponsible and baseless reporting."