Ukraine-Russia-US Talks Press On Despite Iran Strikes

A Third Round in the Balance

Peace talks between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia — scheduled for March 5–6 in Abu Dhabi — remain alive despite a sudden new complication: Iran's massive missile and drone strikes on the United Arab Emirates, which began on February 28 and forced the closure of UAE airspace. Kyiv is not backing down. "Nobody postponed the next trilateral meeting with the Americans, even after the strike on Iran," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared, while acknowledging that the venue may need to change.

Venue Uncertain, Talks Not Cancelled

With Abu Dhabi under threat, both sides are scouting alternatives. Zelensky favors Geneva or another European city, arguing "the war is taking place on our continent." Russia has reportedly indicated through intermediaries that Istanbul could work as a substitute. Austria, the Vatican, and Turkey were also raised as fallback options. No formal postponement was announced as of March 3.

The upcoming round builds on earlier sessions in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, both of which yielded little visible progress. Ukraine's team, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, is expected to face Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and his team — the American officials driving Washington's push to close a deal before the war enters a fifth year.

The Donbas Impasse

The core sticking point remains the fate of unoccupied Donbas territory. Russia demands full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk provinces; Ukraine proposes a freeze along current contact lines. For Moscow, complete control of the Donbas is a precondition for any agreement. For Zelensky, ceding the region is a declared red line — both politically and constitutionally.

Complicating Kyiv's position, the Trump administration has reportedly tied robust security guarantees — broadly comparable to NATO's Article 5 — to Ukraine first accepting a territorial deal that would involve surrendering the Donbas, according to The Irish Times, citing eight people familiar with the negotiations. The White House denied the reports. Ukrainian officials described the approach as "strong-arm" pressure, though Washington has offered additional weapons transfers as a sweetener should Kyiv comply.

UN Calls for Ceasefire — the US Steps Back

On February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution demanding "an immediate, full and unconditional ceasefire." The vote was 107 in favor, 12 against, and 51 abstentions. The United States abstained, arguing the text risked "distracting from ongoing negotiations" — a signal of Washington's preference for bilateral diplomacy over multilateral pressure. Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and Iran voted against the measure.

The Thorniest Problem: Ceasefire Verification

Even if negotiators reach a framework agreement on territory and security guarantees, analysts point to ceasefire monitoring as the most technically demanding challenge still unaddressed. The Minsk agreements of 2014–2015 — the last major attempt at a negotiated pause — ultimately collapsed in part because monitoring was never effectively enforced. Designing a credible verification mechanism for a contact line stretching hundreds of kilometers, including questions of who staffs it, under what mandate, and with what authority to respond to violations, remains an open problem at the heart of the Abu Dhabi process.

If the March talks go ahead — in the Gulf or on neutral European soil — they will be the most consequential round yet. Zelensky has also expressed hope for a prisoner exchange. The window for diplomatic progress is narrow; the cost of continued failure, enormous.