Baden-Württemberg Election: CDU Slightly Ahead, AfD Surges, Pressure on Merz

A week before the state election in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026, a tight race is shaping up, with implications far beyond the state's borders. The CDU is narrowly ahead in current polls — but its lead is shrinking, the Greens are catching up rapidly, and the AfD is emerging as a resurgent third force.

Polls: Neck-and-Neck Race Just Before Election Day

The latest ZDF Politbarometer Extra from February 27 sees the CDU at 27 percent, the Greens at 25 percent, and the AfD at 19 percent. The picture is even tighter according to Infratest dimap from February 26: CDU 28 percent, Greens 27 percent — a difference within the margin of error. The SPD lags behind at 9 percent, while the FDP and the Left each reach 6 percent. According to ZDF, around a third of voters are still undecided — meaning the outcome remains completely open.

For comparison: In the 2021 election, the Greens were clearly ahead with 30.2 percent, compared to the CDU's 24.1 percent. Should the CDU actually be ahead on election day, it would be a historic turnaround after 15 years of Green dominance in the southwest.

Hagel vs. Özdemir: An Uneven Duel

CDU lead candidate Manuel Hagel, state chairman since 2023, is running as lead candidate in a state election for the first time. His stated goal: to lead the CDU back into the Stuttgart State Chancellery after 15 years in opposition. The outgoing Minister President Winfried Kretschmann (Greens), who has governed the state since 2011, is not running again.

The Greens are campaigning with former Federal Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir — and he enjoys surprisingly strong support among the population. According to the ZDF Politbarometer, 47 percent of those surveyed would like to see Özdemir as the next Minister President, while only 25 percent vote for Hagel. This clear disparity presents the CDU with a structural problem: the party leads in the Sunday question, but its candidate clearly does not.

The AfD Doubles Its Result

The AfD is consistently polling at 19 to 20 percent — which would correspond to an almost complete doubling of its 2021 result (9.7 percent). Lead candidate Markus Frohnmaier is running as a candidate for Minister President, although no other party is seeking a coalition with the AfD. The real goal is different: to demonstrate strength and exert pressure on Berlin. The focus of the AfD's election program is on strict migration demands and criticism of the federal government's energy policy.

Test for Chancellor Merz

Across party lines, the election in Baden-Württemberg is seen as the first major test for Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz after taking office. A CDU-led change of government in Stuttgart would be a symbolically significant victory — and would politically strengthen Merz's position as he simultaneously deals with geopolitical tensions and economic challenges. A strong AfD result, on the other hand, would noticeably increase the pressure from the right on the new federal government. The signal effect for Berlin is enormous: Baden-Württemberg, one of the strongest economic states, is considered a political barometer for the mood in the German center.

Coalition: Black-Green as the Only Realistic Option

Arithmetically, only a coalition of the CDU and the Greens would remain as a viable majority based on the current situation. According to the ZDF Politbarometer, 45 percent of those surveyed rate such a black-green state government positively. Who will provide the Minister President — Hagel or Özdemir — depends on the exact vote shares and the course of the coalition negotiations. On March 8, it will become clear whether Baden-Württemberg is actually changing the political winds or whether the Ländle will once again go its own way.