Oscars 2026: Final Predictions Before the Big Night

Hollywood Holds Its Breath

The 98th Academy Awards, airing live on ABC and Hulu from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on March 15, 2026, have shaped into one of the most genuinely competitive Oscar races in recent memory. Two films are locked in an extraordinary battle for Best Picture: Ryan Coogler's vampire thriller Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson's political epic One Battle After Another. Meanwhile, a historic new category, the first added to the Oscars in 25 years, is set to make casting directors Oscar winners for the first time.

Sinners vs. One Battle After Another

Sinners made history at the nominations stage, earning a record 16 nominations — more than any film ever. Forecasters at Variety and Gold Derby project it will convert seven of those into wins, including Original Score for Ludwig Göransson and potentially Best Director for Coogler. A Coogler victory would also make history: it would mark the first Best Picture win for a Black woman producer.

Yet the awards-season math stubbornly favors One Battle After Another. Anderson's film has swept the most predictive guild and critic prizes — Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, the ACE Eddies, DGA, PGA, WGA, and at least one SAG prize. As IndieWire notes, no film in history that has won all of those precursors has ever lost Best Picture. Prediction markets currently give One Battle After Another roughly an 80 percent chance of taking home the top prize.

The counter-argument is almost equally compelling. Sinners holds the SAG ensemble prize, and historically no film that has won SAG ensemble, the ACE, and the WGA has ever lost Best Picture either. The two films have split the circuit, creating a genuine paradox that will only be resolved on Sunday night.

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley Looks Unstoppable

In the acting races, Jessie Buckley has built what looks like an insurmountable lead for Best Actress for her performance as Agnes in Hamnet. She swept the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and BAFTAs — the three bellwether ceremonies — making her the clear frontrunner, according to Variety's final predictions. The role marks her move from supporting player to full leading-lady contender, and the Academy appears ready to reward it.

Best Actor: Jordan Surges Past Chalamet

The Best Actor race began the season as Timothée Chalamet's to lose — and he may have lost it. Chalamet's work in Marty Supreme dominated early conversation, but Michael B. Jordan, starring in Sinners, delivered a SAG Awards victory that reshuffled the field. The SAG win is among the most reliable predictors of the Oscar, leaving Chalamet in the unusual position of underdog heading into the final weekend. Other nominees include Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Frankenstein and the Supporting Races

Netflix's Frankenstein is forecast for three wins, primarily in technical categories. Its elaborate prosthetics and practical effects work make it the frontrunner for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, while Jordan is also tipped for Best Supporting Actor for his work in Sinners.

A Historic New Category

The ceremony will also introduce the Achievement in Casting award — the first new permanent Oscar category since Best Animated Feature debuted in 2001. As NPR reports, casting directors have long argued their craft is foundational to filmmaking. The inaugural nominees include Francine Maisler for Sinners and Nina Gold for Hamnet, among others. Whoever wins Sunday night, the award itself is already a victory for an overlooked corner of Hollywood.

What to Watch For

With the ceremony hours away, the central question remains unanswered: can Sinners overcome the historical weight of One Battle After Another's guild sweep, or will its record nominations haul and passionate Academy support produce one of the great upsets of recent years? Either outcome will make history.