Rhineland-Palatinate Election: Tight Race Weighs on Merz
Rhineland-Palatinate will elect a new state parliament on March 22nd. The CDU and SPD are in a close race, which is also putting pressure on the Black-Red coalition at the federal level.
Tight Race Between CDU and SPD
On Sunday, March 22nd, around four million eligible voters in Rhineland-Palatinate are called upon to elect a new state parliament. Polls show a race that is as close as it gets: According to the latest ZDF Politbarometer from March 19th, the CDU, led by top candidate Gordon Schnieder, is at 29 percent, followed by the SPD of Minister President Alexander Schweitzer with 27 percent. The difference is therefore within the statistical margin of error.
A lot is at stake for the SPD: The party has continuously provided the Minister President in Mainz since 1991 — that is, for 35 years. A CDU victory would end this era and bring the conservative party to power for the first time in over three decades.
AfD on the Rise, FDP Facing Elimination
Behind the two major parties, the AfD is positioned with around 19 percent — more than double its result from 2021. The Greens are at around 8 to 9 percent, while the Left is struggling with around 5 percent to enter the state parliament. The situation is particularly dramatic for the FDP: it is in danger of failing to clear the five percent hurdle and thus falling out of the previous traffic light coalition in the state. The Free Voters around Joachim Streit are also hovering around the threshold with 4 to 5 percent.
Education as the Number One Campaign Issue
The election campaign is dominated by the issue of education — according to polls, the biggest concern of 25 to 29 percent of voters. The CDU is calling for a compulsory pre-school year and a "primary school guarantee" with afternoon care up to the age of 14. The SPD is focusing on free learning materials, expanded language support in daycare centers and reliable childcare. Other priorities are infrastructure and migration and asylum policy.
Federal Political Explosiveness
The election is the second of five state elections in the so-called super election year 2026 — and a delicate stress test for Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The state election in Baden-Württemberg on March 8th was already disappointing for the CDU: Despite a gain of 5.6 percentage points, it landed just behind the Greens with 29.7 percent.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, there are only losers for the Black-Red coalition at the federal level: If the CDU wins, the SPD will be weakened as a partner. If the SPD defends the state, the CDU will have to face uncomfortable questions about the charisma of its Chancellor. According to a YouGov poll, 49 percent of Germans already do not believe that the Black-Red coalition will last until the regular federal election in 2029.
Possible Coalitions
The coalition options in Mainz are open. A continuation of the previous traffic light coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP depends on the Liberals entering parliament. A grand coalition of CDU and SPD, a black-green alliance or a three-way constellation including the Free Voters would also be conceivable. One thing is clear: Without the other major party, it will hardly be possible for the CDU or SPD to form a majority — both have ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
The election Sunday in Rhineland-Palatinate will thus be a barometer of sentiment for the entire republic — and a measure of how much support the Grand Coalition in Berlin still enjoys.
