2026 Municipal Elections: Grégoire Leads in Paris, Dati Trailing

A Clear Victory for the United Left in the First Round

French voters went to the polls on Sunday, March 15, for the first round of the 2026 municipal elections. In Paris, the result was unambiguous: Emmanuel Grégoire, candidate of the united left (PS, PCF, Les Écologistes, Place Publique), came out far ahead with 37.4% of the vote, according to Ipsos-BVA-Cesi estimates. Far behind, the Minister of Culture and former mayor of the 7th arrondissement, Rachida Dati (LR, MoDem, UDI), garnered between 24.8% and 25.5%, according to various sources.

This is a severe setback for the right-wing candidate, who had enjoyed extensive media visibility for months. "The gap between Mr. Grégoire and Ms. Dati is considerable," commented an Ipsos director on election night. Former Mayor Anne Hidalgo, who was not seeking a third term, thus leaves her former first deputy a solid electoral legacy.

A Complex Five-Way Race Before the Second Round

Two other candidates qualified for the second round scheduled for March 22, 2026: Sophia Chikirou (La France Insoumise) with approximately 12% of the vote, and Pierre-Yves Bournazel (Horizons, Renaissance) with 11.7%. The Reconquête candidate, Sarah Knafo, failed to cross the 10% threshold with 9.9%, and therefore cannot remain in the race.

Negotiations between rounds promise to be decisive. Sophia Chikirou indicated that she would only consider withdrawing in the event of a genuine political agreement with Grégoire. On Rachida Dati's side, overtures have been made towards Pierre-Yves Bournazel and, implicitly, towards Knafo's voters—which raises tensions over potential alliances with the far right. "It would be very difficult for Ms. Dati to backtrack on her statements in the second round," according to an analysis by La Libre.

Sharp Increase in Voter Turnout in Paris and France

The Parisian election was marked by a turnout of 58.5%, a sharp increase compared to the 2020 election, which was held in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic (42.3%). Nationally, abstention is estimated at 44%, compared to 55.3% in 2020—a significant decline that reflects a renewed interest in this election, considered a barometer eighteen months before the 2027 presidential election.

Major Cities, Reflecting a Fragmented France

Beyond Paris, the national panorama confirms a fragmentation of the political landscape. In Marseille, the outgoing Socialist Benoît Payan (35.6%) narrowly leads the Rassemblement National candidate Franck Allisio (35.1%), in what promises to be one of the closest races in the country. In Lyon, the outgoing Green mayor Grégory Doucet and businessman Jean-Michel Aulas are tied at 36.8%, opening up an uncertain second round. In Lille, the left is divided into three lists, none exceeding 27%.

La France Insoumise is emerging as a kingmaker in several major cities, while the Rassemblement National is making notable inroads in cities in the South. These results outline a fragmented political landscape, whose second-round alliances will be revealing of national power dynamics.

Paris, Symbol of a National Stake

The Paris mayoralty remains a political symbol of the first order. A victory for Grégoire on March 22 would anchor the capital on the left for a third consecutive term, strengthening the Socialist camp in the run-up to 2027. A comeback by Dati, although improbable given the gaps, would offer the right a much-needed national showcase. In both cases, the March 22 election will be scrutinized far beyond the borders of the capital.