Fidesz Wins in Kazincbarcika Ahead of April 12 Elections

Fidesz Wins in Kazincbarcika After Sixteen Years

Attila Kaló, the Fidesz-KDNP candidate, won the by-election in Kazincbarcika's 7th individual constituency on March 8. The ruling party's candidate received 43.21 percent of the votes (283 votes), ahead of Ágnes Sütő in second place (36.34%, 238 votes) and Erzsébet Séllyei in third place (20.46%). Out of the 2,821 registered voters, a total of 658 went to the polls — representing a turnout of just 23.33 percent.

The victory is significant because it is the first individual mandate Fidesz has won in the traditionally left-leaning industrial town in Borsod county in sixteen years. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán personally congratulated the winner and commented on the result on social media: "Reality vs. Tisza: 2:0" — referring to the opposition's series of by-election defeats.

Tisza Party Did Not Field a Candidate

However, it is important to note that the Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, officially did not field a candidate in the election. Ágnes Sütő, a Tisza sympathizer, ran as an "independent" with the support of the opposition Local Protection Association, and ultimately finished third. HVG critically noted that Fidesz proclaimed victory against Tisza even though Péter Magyar's party did not actually participate in the contest.

Conflicting Public Opinion Polls

Ahead of the April 12 parliamentary elections, public opinion polls paint a surprisingly contradictory picture. According to the Nézőpont Institute, which is closer to the government, Fidesz-KDNP stands at 46 percent, while the Tisza Party is at 40 percent. In contrast, the latest survey by the independent Závecz Research shows Tisza leading with 50 percent among decided voters, compared to Fidesz's 38 percent. The Publicus Institute also measures a Tisza advantage: 47–39 in favor of Péter Magyar's party among decided voters.

The gap between the different institutes can be attributed in part to methodological differences — for example, in how they define "decided voters" — but political financing also plays a role in the perception of pollsters.

The Shadow of Constituency Redrawing

However, a public opinion poll lead is not enough for opposition success. In December 2024, Fidesz redrew the boundaries of individual constituencies, primarily reducing their number in Budapest and increasing them in Pest County. According to an Átlátszó analysis, the opposition needs at least a 3–5 percentage point lead in the national vote share to gain a parliamentary majority. Some estimates suggest that Tisza would need as much as 55 percent of the popular vote for a simple parliamentary majority, while Fidesz could win a two-thirds majority with 45 percent.

Mobilization and Stakes

Péter Magyar is participating in a 55-day "Now or Never" national tour to mobilize Tisza voters. According to Euronews, 97 percent of Tisza sympathizers are certain to participate in the vote, compared to 85 percent of the Fidesz camp — the difference in participation could be decisive.

The victory in Kazincbarcika indicates that Fidesz is capable of mobilizing its local base while also exploiting the fragmentation of the opposition. Whether this momentum will last until April 12, and what real majority will emerge in the National Assembly, will soon be revealed by the voters' decision.