German Election: CDU/CSU and AfD Neck and Neck in Final Stretch
With two days to go until the snap general election on February 23, 2026, the CDU/CSU and AfD are tied at around 25 percent each. With hardly any party willing to form a coalition with the AfD, government formation is likely to be a real test of patience.
Historic Dead Heat Two Days Before the Election
Germany is facing a general election of superlatives: on Monday, February 23, 2026, a new parliament will be elected – and current polls show a race as tight as rarely before. According to several independent institutes, the CDU/CSU and AfD are virtually tied at around 25 percent each, while the SPD has fallen significantly behind with 14 to 16 percent.
The latest Forsa poll from February 17, 2026 sees the Union narrowly ahead of the AfD (25 percent) with 26 percent, followed by the SPD (14 percent) and the Greens (12 percent). The INSA Institute also determined a tie between the CDU/CSU and AfD at 25 percent each on February 13. An Ipsos survey from February 6-8 even shows the AfD as the strongest force with 26 percent. Alliance 90/The Greens are polling at 11 to 13 percent depending on the institute, and The Left at 10 to 12 percent.
Merz Seeks Clear Mandate
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has geared up for the final sprint shortly before election day: at the CDU party conference in Stuttgart on February 20, 2026, he was re-elected party chairman with 91.2 percent of the delegates' votes – a result that surprised even internal party observers. Merz appealed to the CDU to demonstrate unity and strengthen the political center of the country.
Merz categorically rules out a coalition with the AfD. According to consistent media reports, he emphasized that the AfD could not be a partner for the Union. The CDU is thus sticking to its so-called firewall – despite the steadily growing strength of the right-wing populists in the polls.
The Coalition Question: Counting Without the AfD
Government formation will be the real Herculean task after election day. Projections based on current polls show: a pure grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD would only come to around 290 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag – clearly below the mark of 316 seats required for a majority. A classic grand coalition would therefore not be viable in purely arithmetical terms.
Possible majority alliances excluding the AfD include:
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens: around 375 seats – arithmetically stable majority
- CDU/CSU + Greens + Left: around 342 seats – arithmetically possible, politically highly controversial
Both variants presuppose that parties with widely differing views find common ground. In particular, a three-way alliance of CDU/CSU with the Greens is considered fraught with tension; cooperation with the Left is hardly conceivable for many Union politicians.
Dissatisfaction as Driver of the New Election
The pressure for a new election did not arise in a vacuum. The previous black-red coalition had recently fallen to historic lows: According to a YouGov survey from February 2026, only 22 percent of the population were satisfied with the federal government, while 75 percent expressed dissatisfaction. Merz's personal approval ratings had almost halved since taking office – only 23 percent thought he was doing a good job.
Europe's View on Berlin
Europe is watching the outcome with keen attention. A stable government in Berlin – the EU's largest economy – is considered urgently necessary in view of the ongoing war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions and economic challenges. Difficult coalition negotiations could paralyze Germany's ability to act for weeks, possibly months.
On the evening of February 23, it will become clear whether the Union can maintain its leading role – or whether the AfD will enter the Bundestag as the strongest force for the first time and permanently change Germany's political landscape.
