FCAS: Last Chance for European Fighter Jet

A Mid-April Ultimatum

The FCAS (Future Combat Air System) program, also known as SCAF in France, is experiencing its most serious crisis since its launch in 2017. Berlin and Paris have set a final deadline of mid-April 2026 to reach an agreement on the industrial distribution of the project, otherwise the program risks being buried altogether.

This deadline, dictated in particular by the German federal budget deadlines, comes after months of deadlock. Phase 2 of the program, which was supposed to start in April, is already compromised, and the first flight of the New Generation Fighter (NGF) demonstrator, scheduled for 2026, now seems unrealistic.

Dassault vs. Airbus: The Core of the Conflict

At the heart of the impasse is a major industrial dispute between Dassault Aviation, the French lead, and Airbus Defence and Space, representing Germany and Spain. Dassault claims leadership in the design of the NGF, based on its experience in the autonomous development of the Rafale. Airbus, for its part, demands an equal decision-making role and has even proposed a two-aircraft approach — one Franco-French, the other German-Spanish.

Dassault CEO Éric Trappier did not mince his words: "If Airbus maintains its position of not wanting to work with Dassault, then the project is dead," he warned, adding that the group would find "other partners if necessary."

Spain Taken Hostage

As the third partner in the program, Spain — represented by Indra — finds itself in a frustrating waiting position. Its CEO, José Vicente de los Mozos, has called on France and Germany to overcome their differences: "Everyone has a responsibility to ensure that this project succeeds," he told Euractiv. Madrid, however, supports the German logic of proportional sharing: "If we pay 33%, we get 33% of the workload."

Alternatives Already on the Table

The most worrying sign for the future of FCAS may come from Berlin. Germany has engaged in discussions with Sweden's Saab, the manufacturer of the Gripen, suggesting that it is exploring alternatives in case negotiations fail. This reinforces the perception that the program, estimated at €100 billion and intended to replace the Rafale and Eurofighter fleets by 2040, is no longer considered essential by all its participants.

The competing GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme), led by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan, is progressing more smoothly, which increases the pressure on the FCAS partners.

A Matter of European Sovereignty

Beyond the industrial squabbles, the credibility of European defense is at stake. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pointed out that France's military needs — in particular nuclear capability and deployment from an aircraft carrier — differ significantly from those of the Bundeswehr. Emmanuel Macron, for his part, said that his role was to "ensure that they reach an agreement."

If mid-April passes without a breakthrough, FCAS could become the most expensive symbol of Europe's inability to build a common defense. The bill for the studies already carried out — €1.8 billion on the French side — will remain very real.